[Barak]

they so crazy

From what I heard, she owns shitloads of gold, though.

[prussia]

First time I have ever been mocked for making a wise investment decision. I am up 250%.

[Barak]

Now that's a lie! I know that I, for one, have mocked you for the very same reason in the past.

And for the record, neither now, nor before, was I mocking you for the investment itself, which is relatively sound, but for the reasons you were and are giving for making said investment.

[Kishi]

Dammit, Barak, don't you realize that when money is worthless, having theoretical ownership of something is the only way people will be able to stay alive?

[xenomega]

Prussia, you were investing in gold for its zombie stopping power right?



No, that can't be right, gold doesn't do shit against zombies.

[Benevolance]

Just to go serious for a moment, you can actually purchase and hold onto real gold. Your local bank should have gold bars/slips available for sale. You may need to make an appointment with the bank prior to purchasing, but it is an option, in case you prefer tangible assets.

Personally, I prefer to buy stock in the companies that mine and produce gold, since the stock typically increases when gold increases, but you also get the benefit of dividends. In Canada, at least, dividends earned are taxed less severely than other capital gains, though the differences are nearly negligible when compared to tax rates on interest earned. Plus, I'm more of a corporate shill than a commodities trader. And what do I know?

Anyway, carry on.

[prussia]

So...I am getting a lecture on economics from people that do not realize you can own tangible gold?

What reasons did I say for owning gold? Inflation? Yeah...every economist says that will happen. Mock me and all of them, but I guarantee they have more education. Why should I listen or care if I am mocked anyway? It is like listening to a little kid tell you the best way to plan your retirement. You know they do not know a thing...

[xenomega]

I am of the opinion that when shit is gonna get bad, its gonna get real bad, real quick, and no amount of gold is going to help you.

[lgm]

Lance is onto something there. There's just too much evidence surfacing that shows several governments gold manipulation as well as banks and the IMF price fixing. Too many people pushing and pulling whereas companies harvesting gold and other precious metals would be, in a sense, somewhat free from this.

[Barak]

prussia, on Jan 26 2009, 12:18 PM, said:

So...I am getting a lecture on economics from people that do not realize you can own tangible gold?

What reasons did I say for owning gold? Inflation? Yeah...every economist says that will happen. Mock me and all of them, but I guarantee they have more education. Why should I listen or care if I am mocked anyway? It is like listening to a little kid tell you the best way to plan your retirement. You know they do not know a thing...

Your reasons were that the United States' dollar would totally collapse, leading to people scrambling for ways to purchase goods.

Of course you can own tangible gold. Do you, though? Or do you own gold bonds? I might not be an economist, but my roommate actually worked in the jewelry business. Not the selling part of it, the making part of it. Do you know that the price of actual gold barely fluctuate, and does not follow the price of gold bonds? I do not know about the electronic/computer parts side of it (the other business that mostly actually use gold), but jewelry makers have providers who sell gold at a steady price that does not fluctuate anywhere near as wildly as the market price of gold does. Oh, btw, its is also much cheaper to buy than the market price. The thing is, Gold (and any other good) that is sold as bonds work on futures, not actual prices.

Everybody in the business that actually uses gold fully expect the market price of gold bonds to go down, and they'll never feel the actual moving of the prices, and continue to purchase gold at the price they always did.

[lgm]

If the dollar collapses, you still won't be able to buy bread with a chunk of gold. You could get lots of useless dollars and a quick lesson in the need for bartering.

[prussia]

lgm, on Jan 27 2009, 06:26 PM, said:

If the dollar collapses, you still won't be able to buy bread with a chunk of gold. You could get lots of useless dollars and a quick lesson in the need for bartering.

Read about the great depression. It is amazing the history you know about other countries as compared to the actual citizens of that country.

[Kishi]

If the dollar collapses, and shipping follows, than you won't be able to buy much of anything in many cities, if you're looking for food.

Though you might meet some heavily armed folks who'd like the opportunity to look through your pantry and help themselves to any stockpiles of whatever shiny you have around. So, good luck with that gold.

This post has been edited by Kishi: 27 January 2009 - 06:40 PM

[prussia]

Barak, on Jan 27 2009, 04:29 PM, said:

Your reasons were that the United States' dollar would totally collapse, leading to people scrambling for ways to purchase goods.

Of course you can own tangible gold. Do you, though? Or do you own gold bonds? I might not be an economist, but my roommate actually worked in the jewelry business. Not the selling part of it, the making part of it. Do you know that the price of actual gold barely fluctuate, and does not follow the price of gold bonds? I do not know about the electronic/computer parts side of it (the other business that mostly actually use gold), but jewelry makers have providers who sell gold at a steady price that does not fluctuate anywhere near as wildly as the market price of gold does. Oh, btw, its is also much cheaper to buy than the market price. The thing is, Gold (and any other good) that is sold as bonds work on futures, not actual prices.

Everybody in the business that actually uses gold fully expect the market price of gold bonds to go down, and they'll never feel the actual moving of the prices, and continue to purchase gold at the price they always did.

As of right now:

1oz Eagle
$987.91

1oz Maple
$979.55

1oz Krugerrand
$978.55

The prices reflect different gold purities. I see nothing about bond prices...and have never invested using bonds.
Tangible gold...traded on the nymex...does not work on futures. If I sold my gold I would get what is called the spot price. I have no idea why I am even arguing against people when I have economists supporting my position...you have your buddy the jeweler. Silly.

Kishi, on Jan 27 2009, 06:37 PM, said:

If the dollar collapses, and shipping follows, than you won't be able to buy much of anything in many cities, if you're looking for food.

Though you might meet some heavily armed folks who'd like the opportunity to look through your pantry and help themselves to any stockpiles of whatever shiny you have around. So, good luck with that gold.

Newsflash....the dollar has already collapsed...along with other world currencies. Just look at the charts of the dollar's progression. At least do research before you post on something you know nothing about and merely take notes from an apocalypse movie. Dollar collapsed in the Great Depression and gold held its value...you could barter with gold...nobody came to your pantry and robbed you with guns. Read a book.

[Kishi]

Dropped? Yes. Collapse? No. I can still buy things with a dollar.

[elliott20]

sigh... another thread about how we're all so royally screwed...

[Benevolance]

I've watched Connections. I know that the most important thing is how to work a plowshare. And so I learned to do that.

[lgm]

Quote

The collapse of the dollar:
In the first half of 2008, smiles were a rare sight among dollar holders. With the U.S. recession-bound, investors shunned the globe's default reserve currency, and it struck new lows against its major competitors, the euro and the pound. Gold broke $1,000 an ounce as traders stampeded away from the dollar. Steve Forbes dubbed it a "junk currency." With the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy, the supply of dollars outstripped demand, an imbalance that weighed on the value of the beleaguered currency.

But rumors of the dollar's death were greatly exaggerated. The U.S. economy has been in free fall for more than a year now, yet the dollar has defied gravity since mid-2008. It's climbed 24 percent against the euro and 47 percent against the pound since last year's lows. Gold has fallen back to $850 an ounce, and investors are pouring money into U.S. Treasuries and, by extension, putting their faith in the dollar.

Why is the dollar still so healthy? Hal Sirkin, a senior partner at the Boston Consulting Group and co-author of "Globality," says that the Federal Reserve "turned on the printing presses pretty heavily" in its early attempt to jolt the economy. That led to the dollar's dip in early 2008 and gloomy forecasts from currency prognosticators, who said the U.S. current-account deficit, government debt levels and bleak GDP forecasts presaged a dollar collapse. "They were right, potentially, on an absolute basis," Sirkin says. "But recognize what was going on simultaneously was that the rest of the world was also entering a recession, and doing the same sort of thing. And since all currencies trade relative to each other, [the commentators] were wrong."

My disreputable source: Newsweek. However, there are a healthy does of expert naysayers who have been saying there will be a dollar collapse since 2006. First it was trade with China and then it was due to this huge market correction recession. Well, the market corrected before Chinese trade could destroy the dollar.. then the US bank collapse triggered the dollar collapse. Except it didn't fall all by itself. It took every other foreign currency for the ride. It also took consumer demand and wholesale prices down too so we're back at a level field so to speak. Energy prices, where many hide their money in downturns, even fell which gave a soft landing. So you can argue all day on whether it collapsed (one can say it didn't if all went down together) but the buying up of other stock sectors and huge rush to invest into the Treasury has gave buoyancy to the dollar. If the dollar were destroyed like it was predicted, we'd be in as bad shape as Iceland. Now THAT is collapse.

When the price of a Coke climbs to $20, I'll switch sides in the debate :) But damn, Coke IS better than Pepsi. That's what I have been trying to say all along.

This post has been edited by lgm: 28 January 2009 - 05:33 AM

[OverdrivePrime]

lgm, on Jan 28 2009, 05:29 AM, said:

When the price of a Coke climbs to $20, I'll switch sides in the debate :) But damn, Coke IS better than Pepsi. That's what I have been trying to say all along.

I agree with the guy from Atlanta. :P

[sarabethv]

If we actually do wind up in a Depression (like the 30's) gold will not be worth anything. Why? Because you cannot eat gold. The dollar bill, will still be used although it will not buy as much as we think it should. People will barter for food, clothing, shelter, gas and those things that they need to carry on and survive. I do read history books and talk to real live people who lived through said depression.

I have no problem with those who buy gold as an investment, nor do I with those who buy bonds, stocks, or even land. They are all reasonable investments; however, I do have problems with people who claim to know everything and say that those who do not believe the way they do, or do what they do are idiots/wrong/stupid/etc.

[lgm]

Very true but there is more to it than that even. You can tout whatever investment philosophy you want and it could work for you great. But everyone's situation is different due to their needs, available funds and a myriad of other things. A huge amount of people still need to keep their money in stocks regardless of the fluctuations if they are focused on long term. Investing 100% in gold (or anything) in the long term would be very bad. The only people that should have been nervous this whole time are those needing to cash in on 401k and other portfolio features. There is never one true way to invest unless it's the One Ring.

[Kishi]

Not even then- I read about a guy who tried investing solely in the One Ring, and he ended up getting burned.

[Benevolance]

Prussia has a legitimate and valid argument. Gold is a safe investment in situations with low economic growth and high inflation. The underlying assumption there being that inflation is going to rise. Because historically, gold (and silver) hold their value in those economic circumstances. Call it a quirk of human nature. This was the case in the late 70s, early 80s. It was only when the Fed raised interest rates really high that it killed inflation and, consequently, gold and silver prices crashed.

This time around, inflation has not increased as expected; it's actually eased a little. But that is not to say it won't increase. If inflation does stay low, you are better off buying bonds and holding cash. To play it really safe, figure out some mixture of the two. The gains on one will possibly offset the losses on the other. You won't be rich, but you (hopefully) won't be as poor.

The Great Depression was not just limited to the United States. It was felt all around the world to varying degrees. I don't quite buy the 'global economy equals new rules' line. If it were true, emerging markets would have been sheltered from a lot of the economic storm. And the same money passes through so many different countries and economies, it's bound to have an effect.

And as much as her doom and gloom propositions seem corny, the estimates on the amounts of toxic assets still to suffer through the system vary from 1 to 2 trillion dollars. Governments all around the worlds have been injecting money in various places and trying to buy up these bad assets, but clarity in economics is only really acheived in hindsight. I haven't seen anything nearing a consensus on the situation from economists. I read a lot of different economists.

[lgm]

Kishi, on Jan 28 2009, 03:30 PM, said:

Not even then- I read about a guy who tried investing solely in the One Ring, and he ended up getting burned.

Oh yeah right. You read about one guy and suddenly you're an expert on ring investments. I'm already up 200% with my Precious Portfolio.

[prussia]

*cough*

Dow 4-5k like I said last year. I have read too much stuff to be wrong on this stuff. I could see why all of you immediately thought I was nuts a little over a month ago about this, but I understand that people think other people are strange when they start predicting stuff that will put them out of their comfort zone. I do not want dow down to 4-5k either, but it is going to happen, and we are headed toward a depression like I said before. I remember everybody thought I was crazy then too, but WSJ, Newsweek, NYT, and the Post have all stated the odds of a depression are over 50% now. So I guess you can do what you usually do and call people that get prepared "nuts" or you can be prepared and call all the people that do nothing "stupid".

This post has been edited by prussia: 09 March 2009 - 03:34 PM

[xenomega]

The only thing I got from that article is that Cipro and bullets will be worth more than gold. Cause really, gold bullets suck. They may not even pierce human skin. But they would look cool.

[Darth Wychipu]

You know...this just makes me all the more glad that I have a skill that is highly barterable.

[Nyoibo]

Indeed, barterable skills are looking good.

[Darth Wychipu]

I mean you know, being a low life who chose the route of massage therapist while others are doing so much better with their multiple degrees in administration and all....

[sarabethv]

Yeah...............uh..............thanks.

[Darth Wychipu]

I was more referring to back when Prussia informed me that she chose to be better than a lowly massage therapist by getting her nursing admin degree....

[Nyoibo]

Massage therapists earn more, and have better hours.

[Kishi]

Plus no one has ever, in a moment of romance, offered a "sensual administration."

[sarabethv]

Kishi, on Mar 10 2009, 08:40 AM, said:

Plus no one has ever, in a moment of romance, offered a "sensual administration."

Dammit this is what I've been doing wrong. Offering "romantic" evenings of physics and conjugations.

On the other hand I give a pretty good massage. While I was teaching at Bryman I studied with TJ (one of the best I've ever encountered) who taught there. I just never felt like giving them $10,000 to make it official.

I don't know if its a compliment or not, but I was one of two people that Quint would let touch him (massage wise). The other was TJ.

Oh, and even though it probably doesn't need to be said; I am of the opinion that it doesn't matter what you choose to do (whether it is professor of physics or garbage collector) if you do the very best you can in what you choose. If you have honor in your profession then it is an honorable profession.

Speaking of garbage collectors, those guys make good money. ....

This post has been edited by sarabethv: 10 March 2009 - 11:24 AM

[Benevolance]

Quote

but WSJ, Newsweek, NYT, and the Post have all stated the odds of a depression are over 50% now.

Darn it! Just when Roubini was getting all sappy and positive about the S&P 500, too...

[lgm]

You know, I predicted the end of the world years ago. When it happens, I told you so. Just remember that.

[Lynx Cat]

That's not how it works. First you have to be superior to all us puny mortals, an Übermann who is the master of all knowledge and whose only limitation is being incapable of being wrong.

[Nyoibo]

Lynx Cat, on Mar 11 2009, 09:10 PM, said:

That's not how it works. First you have to be superior to all us puny mortals, an Übermann who is the master of all knowledge and whose only limitation is being incapable of being wrong.

Done.

What, I'm Australian, therefore superior to all other mortals.

[Darth Wychipu]

Nyo, you're Australian and going to be a massage therapist...soon the world will fall at your feet begging for you...

[prussia]

I think my best skill is I can play green day songs on bass.

My neighbor came over yesterday after market close and told me the recession was over because it went up. But I checked out a few economists I trusted and they said it is a dead cat bounce...and that is a strange name for it. They said if it holds up today and goes up then it might last for a week or two, but if it does not then it will go back down quick.

[Benevolance]

I'd heard it referred to as a bear market rally. Same thing, but dead cat bounce sounds way cooler. Clearly, the Canadian economists have duller turns of phrase compared to southern US economists! :D

Quote

I think my best skill is I can play green day songs on bass.

That's really awesome, Prussia. Green Day is a surprisingly technical band. I can play "All by myself" on guitar...and that's the limit of my guitar abilities. But most people don't want to hear an encore after I finish the song so it's enough. :D

But since I've started listening to more Indy songs, I'm getting the urge to actually learn some guitar. It's difficult to casually pull out a piano around a campfire and pretend you just happened to have it on you, did anybody want to sing?

[prussia]

Benevolance, on Mar 11 2009, 12:22 PM, said:

I'd heard it referred to as a bear market rally. Same thing, but dead cat bounce sounds way cooler. Clearly, the Canadian economists have duller turns of phrase compared to southern US economists! :D



That's really awesome, Prussia. Green Day is a surprisingly technical band. I can play "All by myself" on guitar...and that's the limit of my guitar abilities. But most people don't want to hear an encore after I finish the song so it's enough. :D

But since I've started listening to more Indy songs, I'm getting the urge to actually learn some guitar. It's difficult to casually pull out a piano around a campfire and pretend you just happened to have it on you, did anybody want to sing?

Of all the green day songs out there...the fact you play "All by Myself" does not surprise me at all.

This is the latest one I have learned: green day

[Barak]

I can listen to Green Day songs all day long. That about sums up my musical skills.

The Dow was up two days in a row now. Yay.

Of course, for all of us in our 30s or younger, and that are not actively playing the market, all that movement means jackshit.

[Benevolance]

I wouldn't say it doesn't mean anything for you, but the effects aren't probably as directly obvious. :P

[lgm]

Word on the street has turned a bit. Contractors are picking up more work lately which seems to mean businesses are beginning to take risks. I've been doing nothing but work for people who are spending money without reservations (or irrational fears). Companies are still laying off employees but more companies are hiring than in the past or spending available cash instead of stashing it. A couple banks are projecting Q4 profit, a couple are turning a profit now and the weak ones can all be seized by the government and sold for all I care. ALL LOCAL banks have NEVER had issues whatsoever here.

The housing market is showing the first signs of stabilization. When it begins people who have been waiting to buy will have to jump off that fence and get a foreclosed home before the people not paying attention (the masses) start entering the market. Once inventory lessens more, new building will pick back up and I'm not sure I'll even be able to handle the number of calls now that the majority of competition has disappeared. (metro Atl saw 109k home sale inventory; it currently stands at 80k; a healthy Atl market is 70k homes for sale at one time! Yay!)

The bad/weak contractors and businesses will have been weeded out. One of our competitors is in the hole for over a million while we have no debt, make wages and were able to stay in the black. I believe I'm the antithesis to Prussia's NeoDepression.

[Barak]

I walked into a 16$/hour job, wth no degrees,and nothing but strong interview skills. I do have to work stupid hours, though.

[prussia]

lgm, on Mar 11 2009, 04:04 PM, said:

The bad/weak contractors and businesses will have been weeded out. One of our competitors is in the hole for over a million while we have no debt, make wages and were able to stay in the black. I believe I'm the antithesis to Prussia's NeoDepression.

Let me quote you on that. We have not got to commercial real estate or credit card defaults. :)

So far I have been right....well the people I have read have been right...when everybody else was calling them crazy. You can see this recession era rally as light at the end of the tunnel, but you cannot loan out trillions and expect no consequences. You think everything is going to be alright? Where did the bailout money come from?

Answer: Thin air

What does that mean for the dollar?

Answer: Hyperinflation

Stagflation is coming. I remember everybody mocking me when I said to buy gold (doubled my money) or that the stock market would crash (it did)...so I do not expect anything different. Ohhh...prussia is doom and gloom nutjob...no...I was just reporting what I was reading. You would have to be ignorant of economics not to believe all of this stuff going on would only have consequences that last a few months. I think everybody is taking advantage of the little uptick this month has brought, but nobody honestly believes the worst is over or that we have even seen the worst yet.

And just so people do not believe everything they see on the news (About the Citigroup "profits")

"In a letter sent to employees Monday, Citi Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said the first-quarter performance so far has been the bank's best since the third quarter of 2007 -- the last time it recorded net income for a full period. Based on historical revenue and expense rates, Citi's projected earnings before taxes and one-time charges would be about $8.3 billion for the full quarter.

Pandit declined to say how large credit losses and other one-time items have been that would at least partially offset profit."

The rumor is they did not make a profit at all but continued to make a loss...only making a profit if they got rid of all assets that did not make them money. That does not make sense to me, but people did not read more into it...so whatever I guess.

This post has been edited by prussia: 11 March 2009 - 04:49 PM

[xenomega]

prussia, on Jan 22 2009, 03:10 PM, said:

First time I have ever been mocked for making a wise investment decision. I am up 250%.

prussia, on Mar 11 2009, 04:41 PM, said:

I remember everybody mocking me when I said to buy gold (doubled my money) or that the stock market would crash (it did).

Hm. At one point you were up 250%, now its only 200%? That would appear to me, now, I'm no economics expert or anything, but it would appear to me that 200% is less than 250%, meaning you've actually lost money. Now, its still a gain, but had you got out when it was 250%, you would have more money than if you got out now. But I'm not an expert.

[lgm]

Quote

And just so people do not believe everything they see on the news (About the Citigroup "profits")

I wasn't talking about Citigroup.

Quote

Let me quote you on that. We have not got to commercial real estate or credit card defaults.

Please do. Less businesses in my area that compete with me over work, all the better. I wasn't even speaking on the stock rally over the last two days anywhere either. I wasn't speaking on anything you were saying specifically. I was saying there is good news out there in my area and it has has been increasing slightly through the second half of the winter. It is a huge amount more than all of the second half of last year which was nothing at all. It's not news you get from a pundit, economic think tanks, or wherever you get your news. I'm paying attention to my market so I can adjust to its rapid changes. My work has expanded into a huge variation of things and our company (with my brother's company) now handles five times as many different services.

What I'm not doing is listening to you or anyone who is predicting doom and gloom. Why? Because I don't give a shit and I do not mean offense to you when I say that. If your depression comes, then so be it. Buying gold won't do a damn bit of good for me. Hording canned food and buying a handgun and rifle may come in handy. But if all I do is hear doomsday predictions, I'll start worrying, stressing, become unhappy, affect those around me and spread fear of the market into everyone around me. The last thing I need is for people to be fearful of the economy. People in fear don't spend money and them not spending money means I won't earn any and eventually I won't be able to feed my family. People can predict all they want and I'll stay in my corner and adjust as needed.

[Barak]

Haha sily Xeno, you're still paying attention to Prussia`s posts.

[elliott20]

not an econ expert. won't pretend I am either. But around my neck of the woods, things are actually doing okay. My company is still in the middle of expansion and so are our competitors, so there is clearly money out there for us to make, and markets for us to expand into. Sure, we got to be a bit more cautious on how we spend now than before. But this area has survived the econ crisis back in 97-98.

of course, I've been told that the worse part is not here yet, so we'll see. (Apparently, Indonesia's economic infrastructure is so underdeveloped by comparison that all the effects of this crisis is going to take much longer to really take into effect)

[Kishi]

People, people, people- the worst is over. The Dow was up 3 *whole* *points* today! We're on our way up!

[lgm]

Third straight week of gold prices sliding. We're headed for that Mysterious Depression so badly that investors are seeing past job loss reports, massive amounts of companies are taking risks (with their cash reserves) and there is a large flight from safe havens such as treasury bonds and precious metals (gold). For those who were buying gold at 980 or 1000+ per ounce, I hope you went long term (10 years).

[xenomega]

As one who doesn't pay attention to gold prices, can someone tell me where they are now?

[Kishi]

Sure. They're usually in the Business section of the paper.

[lgm]

It's floating around 950 after falling and otherwise bouncing around slightly less than the levels that they have been floating since the economy turned down. It's common sense.. market is bad, go to metals and commodities since they will rise. It appears they've done all the peaking they will do unless something drastic happens. Unless you're gambling, your money should be invested broadly and a good investment group will leave metals a bit as the market starts to breath again.