[TLRIV]

http://www.dailymail...ndence-Day.html

Summary:

Intelligence out of Japan suggests that North Korea plans to launch a long-range missile at Hawaii on July 4th. Both Japanese intelligence and U.S. reconnaissance satellites have collated information pointing to the launch, according to the report.

More:
http://news.yahoo.co...pe/us_us_nkorea

The US is tracking a suspicious N. Korea ship and sending anti-missile measures to Hawaii.

[Kishi]

Interesting. Especially since people don't think the missile would reach that far. Wonder what kind of wave a nuclear blast 500 miles from Hawaii would kick up.

(I do love the comment about Obama slashing missile defense funding- yeah, buddy, because otherwise that program would be completed and deployed by now. That's totally how military development works.)

You have to wonder- is the man really this insane? He can't win, unless he thinks demolishing South Korea before he dies counts as winning.

[TLRIV]

I really do wonder if he has designs of just going down in history as being the Great Challenger of the West before he kicks off. Supposedly he's in pretty ill health and all.

[Benevolance]

A number of pundits have figured this show of force is aimed at home, more than abroad. He's had to turn to his third son as heir, and there is no guarantee that all the military and people will support the new regime.

[sarabethv]

I figure he just wants to go out with a blast.

[xenomega]

I thought the last missile they shot barely made it far enough to have reached Japan, how the hell do they think they have a missile capable of reaching Hawaii? And if they did, does that mean we could finally retaliate with some nukes, they are just sitting there being unused anyway, and whats the point of having them if we have no intention of using them?

[TLRIV]

SUpposedly this particular missile has a 4,000 mile max range, which still isn't enough to hit Hawaii from the launch site.

I figure just aiming it at us is reason enough to obliterate, though.

[Lynx Cat]

This is interesting, considering that thek (the NK regime) already stated that if anyone boards even one of their boats they'll take it as a declaration of war and "fight back" (nukes implied, of course), and now there's a particularly suspicious boat that the US is kinda compelled to search. That smacks to me like the NK folks just set this whole situation up in order to force a conflict, which is of course baffling in itself, as it's obvious to anyone that they wouldn't last a week in a war, nukes or no nukes. So the whole thing may be just a big attention grab hoping for aid packages in order to "appease" them and avoid unnecessary damage (I mean, they're kinda starving over there), or it may be just a last-ditch desperate measure by a crumbling regime. Because it's not just Kim Jong-Il that's dying, his government is in a political crisis because of the infighting over his succession.

Whatever it is, it sounds like those folks might really be crazy/desperate enough to actually do something stupid. Which of course won't do much to change history (other than maybe speeding up the downfall of the NK regime), but will mean a lot of damage and deaths that don't really need to happen. All in all, the whole thing is just sad.

[Darth Wychipu]

He will NOT blow up my islands DAMMIT!!!! :gunsmilie:

[Nyoibo]

Lynx Cat, on Jun 20 2009, 08:38 AM, said:

and now there's a particularly suspicious boat that the US is kinda compelled to search.

Yeah, but until that boat enters US waters it's and act of piracy, and an act of piracy sanctioned by a government makes it an act of war.

Lets face it, no one's going to do anythingNK isn't going to get into a fight with the US and it's allies, and the US really doesn't want to start anything with NK, mainly because NK has the backing of China.

[Darth Wychipu]

Anybody sportin' a blue turbin?

[Jahx]

Honestly, at this point, I think China would tell them they're on their own. No sense in them getting involved in a war over cockassery.

[Lynx Cat]

Nyoibo, on Jun 19 2009, 11:44 PM, said:

Yeah, but until that boat enters US waters it's and act of piracy, and an act of piracy sanctioned by a government makes it an act of war.

Lets face it, no one's going to do anythingNK isn't going to get into a fight with the US and it's allies, and the US really doesn't want to start anything with NK, mainly because NK has the backing of China.

Well there's an UN resolution that mandates searching that ship. Sure, the resolution doesn't allow high-seas boarding, nor military force. But if the ship ports anywhere - not just in US territory, but any country, the UN mandates searching it.

[Benevolance]

Quote

or it may be just a last-ditch desperate measure by a crumbling regime. Because it's not just Kim Jong-Il that's dying, his government is in a political crisis because of the infighting over his succession.

I think that's it there. Jong wants an orderly succession to someone of his own choosing, but it's highly debatable whether that will happen. Already, the third son (the one Jong wants to lead) is being heralded as the architect and genius behind the nuclear experiments by the NK official news agency. By tying that son with the success and attention, not to mention a little sabre-rattling with an international community that is loath to militarily intervene in any place that isn't Iraq, you have a sure-fire way of garnering support at home.

NK has just enough protection from the Chinese support that no country is going to simply step in and straighten things out. But similarly, not have enough support that it can afford to push too far. This will likely end up back at the table with the six country talks, mediated by China, as new aid packages and pledges are made.

P.S. - Lynx, where is your sig quote from? And that sig coupled with your avatar makes for a rather...amusing yet disturbing combination.

[Hans]

Does The Democratic People's Republic of Korea have the balls to do this? Yes.

Do they have the means? Doubtful.

[Ishn]

Lynx Cat, on Jun 19 2009, 06:08 PM, said:

This is interesting, considering that thek (the NK regime) already stated that if anyone boards even one of their boats they'll take it as a declaration of war and "fight back" (nukes implied, of course), and now there's a particularly suspicious boat that the US is kinda compelled to search. That smacks to me like the NK folks just set this whole situation up in order to force a conflict, which is of course baffling in itself, as it's obvious to anyone that they wouldn't last a week in a war, nukes or no nukes. So the whole thing may be just a big attention grab hoping for aid packages in order to "appease" them and avoid unnecessary damage (I mean, they're kinda starving over there), or it may be just a last-ditch desperate measure by a crumbling regime. Because it's not just Kim Jong-Il that's dying, his government is in a political crisis because of the infighting over his succession.

Whatever it is, it sounds like those folks might really be crazy/desperate enough to actually do something stupid. Which of course won't do much to change history (other than maybe speeding up the downfall of the NK regime), but will mean a lot of damage and deaths that don't really need to happen. All in all, the whole thing is just sad.

I think you underestimate the might of the North Korean military. Their military is three times the size of ours, and if we try to invade them we're looking at another Iraq situation where we'll be outnumbered by people who know the land forced to fight both military and civilians.

We won't nuke them because there's too great a risk for civilian casualties. Nuclear weapons are just posturing and preening, not actually devices to be used in a war.

[Lynx Cat]

Except that, if the NKoreans really have nuclear artifacts and missiles capable of adequately delivering them (which is of course not certain, might as well be a bluff), they might actually USE them. They certainly sound like they might just do that. And, if that's the case, then the US just can't afford something slow and difficult like a land war. In that scenario, we're talking at the very least some heavy bombing, but nuclear weaponry should be an option on the table. It would be a hella lot more justified than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, at any rate. Although, of course, it shouldn't be used unless absolutely necessary - I mean, look at Japan. You bombed them, they fought back with hentai. I'm not sure we can handle a second wave of that :P

Lance - I came up with the sig, just demonstrating something that might sound completely innocent 50 years ago. And my avatar is from a cake blog.

[Ishn]

I don't think America will ever use them again unless China or Russia or one of the big nuclear powers gets involved. If we have any options available, any whatsoever, we won't use them because we can't afford to be seen as the bad guy for killing millions of civilians, irradiating the land, and plus whatever happens from the fallout. We can't afford the fallout to leak over into China or South Korea, for example. One will spark China to retaliate, and the other will seriously damage a much-needed ally.

I really see nukes as a "we're going to suffer utter defeat if we don't, so we have nothing to lose" only options.

[sarabethv]

I think that we didn't know just what would happen with Hiroshima and Nagasaki and that once we realized it scared the hell out of us and just about every other world power that could think. No one wants that kind of mess anymore, and for the most part nukes are a threat to hold up and wave about. However, I am not convinced that whats his name is completely sane, or that he really cares what world opinion would be; thus, the threat should be taken seriously. I also think that we have the capability to stop a warhead before it hits, but not convinced that we would do so. I agree with Ishn (gak the world must be coming to an end) in that nukes are a last ditch sort of thing, but Lynx is also right in that we cannot afford yet another ground "this isn't going to end anytime soon and we will once again look like shit" type of war.

[Lynx Cat]

Well yeah. In fact, if I were the US president, I'd be quicker to consider nukes when going against NKorea than against China or Russia. Those latter countries would probably be much more rational in their decisions - the fact that they're so large and powerful also means, among other things, that they have too much to lose. So, just like the US wouldn't be inclined to use nukes unless left with no choice at all, the same would apply to China and Russia, and US authorities would probably take that into consideration. So, nuclear war between such large powers is much less likely than one involving a small and desperate country that happens to have nukes (if that's the case). NK may be counting on US hesitation for a chance to strike first, which can be devastating when nukes are involved, that if it *does* come to war - and I guess that even the NKoreans would prefer it if there wasn't. They're probably either posturing for the crowd at home and/or hoping for an "appeasement" aid package. But, if push comes to shove, they might fight like a cornered rat (which is more dangerous than a free-moving lion, as Sun Tzu warned us), and shouldn't be given the chance to strike first.

All in all, what sounds most likely and actually makes sense from a pragmatic standpoint is this: "six-party" talks are called (I believe moves are already being made toward that), NK groans a lot (for show) but comes around and agrees to the talks, the conclusion reached therein is that NK agrees to behave like a good kid in exchange for a substantial relief package (which will nevertheless cost the big powers involved much, much less, both in resources and PR, than a war would), Kim Jong-Il comes home to tell everyone how he (with the help of his third son) made the world so afraid that they're bending over backwards to appease him, and how everyone will have better food and whatnot for the next few months thanks to his (and his third son's) administrative genius. The US avoids a war that would probably suck no matter how it's conducted, KJI & son have their position strengthened, SK and Japan are safe from their crazy neighbor for a while, everybody wins. Well, except for the NKorean populace, which will have to endure the regime that much longer, because the whole situation got stabilized for a while longer, at the expense of UN taxpayer money. Yeah, sucks, but the alternative isn't attractive at all to anyone in power.

[Hans]

If the US attacks the DPRK right off the bat, Cuba and Russia would get involved, as there's a strong communist hold in Russia.

Japan would ally with the US promptly, not only because we have bases there, but also because Japan and the US share similar interests.

Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Nepal, India and China are the wild cards in this poker game.

[xenomega]

Sunshine Bear, on Jun 21 2009, 07:20 PM, said:

If the US attacks the DPRK right off the bat, Cuba and Russia would get involved, as there's a strong communist hold in Russia.

Why would Cuba matter, or care? Just because they are also Communist? Its not like all Communist nations band together, otherwise China would back NKorea as well. And Russia might have a strong communist hold, but the nation and its leaders aren't and wouldn't likely back NKorea against the US. They may still have nukes, but they've been active in dismantling them, unlike the US which just said we would but hasn't gotten around doing anything about it.

[Hans]

I say Cuba would get involved due to the embargo that the US initiated on them. Also the failed assassination attempts on Castro. Cuba is also in tactical position to strike the US.

China is a wild card in this because though the DPRK is on their border, the DPRK isn't really interested in starting shit with them . . . yet.

That's my reasoning.

[Kishi]

Cuba's in a position, yes, but they've got, effectively, shit to hit us with. Their military development pretty much died the day that the soviet regime in Moscow did. Venezuela's more likely to get involved on the side of North Korea, and that's only slightly likely. More likely, Cuba and Venezuela will do the same thing- either nothing, or put out press releases complaining about capitalist imperialism. That's about the extent of it.

Besides, Russia and China have both been pretty vocal in telling North Korea to knock this crap off and get back to the negotiating table. Unless the US is pretty obviously the aggressor here, which is far, far less likely than a year ago, given our president, there's really no one on the side of the DPRK in this one.

This post has been edited by Kishi: 21 June 2009 - 08:29 PM

[sarabethv]

They could quit seling cigars on the black market.

[Benevolance]

Yes, because now that the US finally has a president that is agreeing to talks in principle with Cuba, talks that could finally end the crushing financial embargo that has crippled Cuba for decades, this is the time for Raul to get all uppity about a country half-way around the globe with an entirely different flavour of socialism and sever those diplomatic and economic ties that both Fidel and Raul have been striving to effect.

[sarabethv]

Oh I agree, but evidently there has been some internal strife between Fidel and Raul regarding the U.S. Raul seems ready to parlay, but Fidel is still nursing the insult. I really hope that Cuba doesn't throw in with North Korea, there is so much potential there.

[Kishi]

Cuba's got fewer than two dozen fighter jets, most of which are the peak of 1960s technology, and a half dozen missile boats that seem to get outrun by refugee rafts. They're not going to do anything.

[sarabethv]

I didn't mean they would kick our butts Kishi. I was more referring to the fact that they have great potential as a ally.

[Nyoibo]

China being a wild card's kinda scary, no one wants to go to war with a country who's military is larger than most countries populations.

No one's going to use nukes, it won't happen simply because if any country did it'd be a galvanising force that brings every other country together to squash them.